A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
